2016 NFL Season Predictions
A new NFL season is upon us, and I think I speak for many football fans when I say that this is the most exciting time of the year. Everyone is anxious to see how the blockbuster offseason signings will pan out and how the high profile rookies will perform. Most importantly, though, this is the time when every fan can claim that his or her team has serious playoff aspirations. However, whether those dreams are realistic or insanely optimistic is a completely different discussion. So, without further ado, here are some predictions to try to shed some light on what will happen in the 2016 NFL season.
AFC East
1. New England 11-5
2. Buffalo 10-6
3. New York 9-7
4. Miami 5-11
No surprise here. The Patriots will win the AFC East for the eighth time in a row and the thirteenth time since 2003. However, I do believe that their record will take a little bit of a dip this year in comparison to what it has been for the past few years. For one, they enter this season with the ninth most difficult schedule in the league based on opponents’ win percentage, as opposed to last year when they were given the twenty-second ranked schedule. Additionally, they won’t have Tom Brady for the first four games of the season, which certainly puts them at a disadvantage. In spite of this, the rest of the contenders in the AFC have problems of their own, so I think that 11-5 will be good enough for them to still grab the top seed in the conference. Behind the Patriots, the Bills and Jets will both have strong showings this year. While the Jets will still have one of the league’s top defensive units, their offense is bound to fall off from last year, as I doubt that Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick will both have back-to-back career seasons. Marshall is now 32, which is fairly old for a receiver, and Fitzpatrick’s 2015 season was a statistical outlier compared to the rest of his career. Because of this, I believe the Bills will pass the Jets for second in the division and grab the sixth seed in the conference. Sammy Watkins was a beast when he was healthy last year, and still managed to catch over 1,000 yards while only playing in twelve full games. LeSean McCoy showed no signs of slowing down, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and boasting a 9.1 yards per reception rate. If those two stay healthy, I believe that the Buffalo offense will be top ten in the league. Finishing last in the East will be the Dolphins, who have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and lost their best offensive weapon in Lamar Miller.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis 10-6
2. Jacksonville 8-8
3. Houston 8-8
4. Tennessee 3-13
With Andrew Luck healthy again, the Colts should have no trouble winning the AFC South and earning the fourth seed in the conference. Even without their star quarterback for nine of their sixteen games, Indianapolis finished last season only one game behind the Texans for the AFC South crown. If the rest of the division couldn’t pull significantly ahead of the Colts with 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck leading the charge, there is no reason to believe that they will challenge the Colts with the three-time Pro Bowler and 2014 touchdown pass leader back in action. That being said, I have the Jaguars and Texans both finishing 8-8 for second and third in the division. I believe the Jaguars will improve to .500 because of their revamped defense. The signings of Super Bowl champion Malik Jackson and Pro Bowler Tashaun Gipson will really help to improve what was a weak unit last year. Additionally, they drafted Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, who were arguably the two best defensive players in the draft. Couple that with a maturing Blake Bortles who will most likely cut back on his interceptions due to more experience reading defenses, and you have a team that could threaten opponents on both sides of the ball. I believe these improvements will allow the Jaguars to just edge past the Texans. Houston will still have a dominant defense, but I’m not sure that Brock Osweiler will be the answer to their quarterback woes. I’m simply not sold enough on their offense to say that they will finish with a winning record again. Finally, although they will have an improved rushing attack, the Titans still don’t have enough talent on their roster to get out of the league’s basement.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh 11-5
2. Cincinnati 9-7
3. Baltimore 8-8
4. Cleveland 2-14
Even without Martavis Bryant for the whole season, the Steelers still have the best offense in the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger is an elite quarterback, Le’Veon Bell is the best dual threat running back in the league, and Antonio Brown has been historically good over the past three seasons. Their secondary is still weak, but Pittsburgh has quietly amassed one of the best front sevens in all of football, holding opponents to the fifth fewest rushing yards and second fewest rushing touchdowns in 2015. These factors will help Pittsburgh get a first round bye, but a regular season loss to New England will give the Patriots the tie-breaker for home field advantage. The Bengals will be noticeably worse this year and finish second in the North. What made Cincinnati so great last year was Andy Dalton’s career season paired with a ball-hawking secondary that snagged 21 interceptions. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the man who called the plays for Andy Dalton, Hue Jackson, is now coaching division rival Cleveland, while Reggie Nelson, who tied for the league lead with 8 picks, departed for Oakland. Those two moves weaken what were the Bengals two biggest strengths, and I believe that will cause them to miss the playoffs. The Ravens will certainly be better than last year with Joe Flacco healthy again, but they have major questions at several positions, including running back, wide receiver, and the secondary. Finally, although I think that Hue Jackson’s expertise can strengthen the Browns offense, their defense is atrocious and may be the worst in the league this year. Therefore, my prediction is that they finish with the worst record in the NFL.
AFC West
1. Kansas City 10-6
2. Oakland 10-6
3. Denver 9-7
4. San Diego 6-10
Having the defending champions finish third in their division may seem like a stretch, but there may be trouble in paradise for the Broncos. The Chiefs ended last season on a ten game winning streak and looked like one of the best teams in football for the latter half of the season. The scary thing is that they did it without their best offensive player, Jamaal Charles, who will be back this year. I believe his return will propel Kansas City to the top of the division and notch them the third seed for the playoffs. I think that the Raiders will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. Derek Carr will take a huge step forward in 2016 along with second year receiver Amari Cooper. They could truly be one of the most feared QB-WR combos in the league. In addition, the signing of Kelechi Osemele gives some much needed help to their offensive line, while the signings of Bruce Irvin and Reggie Nelson will bolster their defense. Add budding superstar Khalil Mack into the mix, who I think will be the Defensive Player of the Year this season, and the Raiders have a team good enough to claim the fifth seed in the AFC. That leaves the reigning champions in third place. It’s no secret that the Broncos offense isn’t that good, but their defense was so fantastic that it carried them to a Super Bowl victory last year. However, their defense was so phenomenal that it will be nearly impossible for them to replicate that level of dominance. The loss of starting defensive tackle Malik Jackson doesn’t help matters, either. Thus, unless Denver can prove me wrong and be just as strong on defense, their offense will weigh them down and cost them a playoff spot. Lastly, although Philip Rivers will play valiantly again this season, the Chargers don’t have enough talent around him to make a serious case for the postseason.
NFC East
1. New York 9-7
2. Dallas 8-8
3. Washington 7-9
4. Philadelphia 5-11
The NFC East is a division filled with bad defenses, and for that reason, I think that they will be the worst division in football again this year. 9-7 will win the East, and I think the Giants are the team to reach that mark. They only posted a record of 6-10 last season, but 8 of those 10 losses were by 6 points or less. An improved defense should be enough to flip some of those close losses into wins and claim the fourth seed in the conference. Even though Tony Romo is injured again to start this season, the Cowboys seem to be in much better standing at the position with Dak Prescott as their backup this time around. Prescott was easily the most impressive rookie of the preseason, and although I take any preseason performance with a grain of salt, he still appears to be leaps and bounds ahead of the combined output that they got from Matt Cassel, Kellen Moore, and Brandon Weeden in 2015. Plus, even if Prescott does struggle, Dallas will be able to lean on promising rookie running back Ezekiel Elliot until Romo returns. Following the Cowboys, I believe that Washington will finish third. Although I am a believer in Kirk Cousins as a potential franchise quarterback, I think that Washington as a whole overachieved last year. I expect things to even out for them this year. The Eagles owned the league’s third worst pass defense and finished dead last against the run in 2015, which does not bode well for rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. It’s difficult enough to be a rookie signal caller in the NFL, and even harder when the inexperienced passer is required to score in bunches and constantly play from behind. For those reasons, Philadelphia will finish in the cellar of the East.
NFC South
1. Carolina 12-4
2. New Orleans 8-8
3. Atlanta 7-9
4. Tampa Bay 6-10
The defending NFC champs will maintain their seat on the throne of the South and claim the conference’s second seed in the process. No other team in the division is anywhere near the Panthers offensively or defensively. The Saints and Falcons will both have explosive passing attacks, but lack the defensive prowess needed to contend for a spot in the postseason. That being said, I give a slight edge to the Saints because future Hall of Famer Drew Brees is still capable of throwing for 5,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns, while Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan turned the football over 24 times last season, the most of his career. The Buccaneers are loaded with young talent, but for right now, they are still the worst team in the South. Give Jameis Winston and company a few more years, though, and I think they’ll be challenging Carolina for NFC South supremacy.
NFC North
1. Green Bay 12-4
2. Minnesota 10-6
3. Chicago 6-10
4. Detroit 5-11
Prior to Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending injury, the Vikings were my pick to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LI. I thought Bridgewater would really break out in his third year, and the combination of one of the greatest running backs of all time in the backfield with him and a top-flight defense on the other side of the ball had me thinking that the sky was the limit for this Vikings team. But alas, they are still a playoff team without Bridgewater, just a six seed instead of a legitimate contender. The gruesome injury ensures an NFC North title for the Packers, whom I have as the third seed. Green Bay’s offense looked lackluster by their standards last year without Jordy Nelson, yet they still managed to go 10-6. So, with him back in the fold, I figure they should be at least 12-4. The Bears didn’t make any big moves in the offseason to right their ship, but I believe that they will be better than the Lions this year. Detroit is sure to struggle in the wake of Calvin Johnson retiring, as he single-handedly carried their offense for most of his career.
NFC West
1. Arizona 13-3
2. Seattle 12-4
3. Los Angeles 9-7
4. San Francisco 3-13
It’s almost unfair that the Cardinals and Seahawks are in the same division. One of them has to be a wildcard, even though the second place finisher could plausibly have a record that is worthy of a first round bye. This one really could go either way. Ultimately, I think the Cardinals will take the division as well as the first seed in the NFC, and the Seahawks will enter the playoffs as one of the strongest five seeds in history. For me, it boils down to scheduling. The Cardinals get the Bridgewater-less Vikings as their NFC North opponent, while the Seahawks have to deal with the (potentially) fully healthy Packers. Likewise, Arizona gets to face the Patriots during Tom Brady’s suspension, but the Seahawks square off against New England on the road four games after Brady’s return. Behind those two title contenders, the Rams will finish just outside the playoff bubble. They have the old-school mentality of smash-mouth football going for them, led by bruising running back Todd Gurley on offense and anchored by defensive tackle Aaron Donald on defense. However, with Case Keenum as their starting quarterback and a depleted corps of receivers, they simply don’t have enough fire power to put up a legitimate fight in the rugged NFC West. The 49ers will round out the division and post the worst record in the conference. Their defense is non-existent and they are starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. That is a recipe for disaster.
AFC Wild Card
6. Bills- 10
3. Chiefs- 16
5. Raiders- 30
4. Colts- 33
Although I do believe that the Raiders and Bills will be two of the most improved teams in the NFL this year, I don’t think either of them are good enough to beat their Wild Card opponents. Tyrod Taylor has no experience in the playoffs, and even though Rex Ryan coached back-to-back teams who were led by Mark Sanchez to the AFC Championship game, Marcus Peters and Eric Berry are too good to not cash in on a nervous quarterback’s mistakes. I think Andrew Luck will single-handedly carry the Colts to the next round in a great quarterback duel with Derek Carr.
AFC Divisional
4. Colts- 17
1. Patriots- 28
3. Chiefs- 20
2. Steelers- 24
The Colts defense is nowhere near good enough to stop Tom Brady and Gronk, and Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia seem to have Andrew Luck figured out. The Chiefs and Steelers will have an all-out battle at Heinz Field, pitting an elite defense against a highly potent offense. But at the end of the day, the Steelers weapons will prove to be a little too much for Kansas City
AFC Conference Championship
2. Steelers- 35
1. Patriots- 38
Tom Brady owns the Steelers. There are no two ways about it. His touchdown to interception ratio against Pittsburgh in their last five contests is 17:0. Pittsburgh’s “Killer B’s” put up a fight in this shootout, but Brady will cash in on a porous Steelers secondary for a trip to his seventh Super Bowl.
NFC Wild Card
6. Vikings- 17
3. Panthers- 20
5. Seahawks- 35
4. Giants- 17
The Vikings defense holds Cam Newton in check better than most defenses could, but Carolina’s stingy run defense goes all-in on stopping Adrian Peterson, knowing that Minnesota will be limited in throwing the football. The Legion of Boom forces two Eli Manning interceptions and Seattle’s offense runs amuck on the Giants defense.
NFC Divisional
5. Seahawks- 24
1. Cardinals- 16
3. Panthers- 24
2. Packers- 30
In a very physical, defensive-minded game, the Seahawks come out on top, as Carson Palmer confirms his status as a playoff choker by turning over the football multiple times. In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers surgically picks apart Carolina’s two rookie corners en route to Packers victory.
NFC Conference Championship
5. Seahawks- 20
2. Packers- 27
The last time these two teams met in the NFC Championship, the Packers seemed like the better squad, picking off Russell Wilson four times to jump ahead to a 16-7 fourth quarter lead. However, a catastrophic meltdown in the final four minutes allowed the Seahawks to come back and get the Super Bowl berth. This time around, Aaron Rodgers will play almost flawlessly and become the only quarterback in the 2016 playoffs to figure out how to successfully attack Seattle’s daunting defense.
Super Bowl LI
NFC 2. Packers-28
AFC 1. Patriots-31
This game will be a showdown for the ages. Two of the most brilliant signal callers to ever put on pads going head-to-head for football’s ultimate prize. I think that each quarterback will throw for over 300 yards and at least 3 touchdowns in a shootout, with Tom Brady leading the Patriots down field for a game winning drive late in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers puts forth one of the greatest quarterback performances in Super Bowl history, but Tom Brady one-ups him to win his fifth and final Lombardi Trophy and cement his legacy as the greatest of all time.
