Pirates Season Preview

By: Sam Soergel

There’s a lot of positive thinking surrounding the Pirates as they head into the 2015 season, and there should be. This is arguably the most hype the team has received in almost 25 years. Two straight postseason appearances have shown people that the Pirates are real contenders, and expect to be for years to come. While they did not look good in the first series of the year, there’s no need to panic yet. It’s just three games, and they started 10-18 in 2014 only to miss the division by two games It’s all there, but the question is can it all come together? If it all does, Buster Olney’s prediction of the Pirates winning the 2015 World Series is very possible.

Lineup:

1. Josh Harrison (3B) – The Bucs think very highly of Harrison; they just signed him to a 4 year deal with options that could make it a 6 year deal. The deal is great even if Harrison is an average third baseman, but the question is can he replicate his 2014? I think he can; he’s hit well in every level of professional ball he’s played in, and he has proven himself as a strong fielding third baseman that can play every day. He is a strong leadoff man as well. Grade: B+
2. Gregory Polanco (RF) – Another player the Pirates expect a lot from, Polanco has to prove he can perform regularly this year. He came to the bigs and had a fantastic start hitting in 11 straight games, but underperformed the rest of the year. He has to be better this year on both sides of the field. His bat has to be better, and he has to be better in the outfield. He has a fantastic arm, but is not the best fielder out in right field. If Polanco lives up to expectations, the Pirates will have the best outfield in the game. Grade: B
3. Andrew McCutchen (CF) – Not much can be said about Cutch that hasn’t been said before. He’s is the best player in the National League and don’t expect him to fall off in 2015. The outlook is simple: Cutch is a five tool player that can carry the team into the postseason. Expect him to be in MVP contention yet again this year. Grade: A+
4. Neil Walker (2B) – The addition of Jung-Ho Kang could possibly be the beginning of the end of Walker’s time in Pittsburgh. He’ll be a free agent in 2017, but he is one of the best second baseman in baseball. It would not be surprising if the Pirates went after him in free agency, but how much they want to pay him could be the problem. Focusing on 2015, Walker will be an important piece in the lineup. He has great power for the second base position, and has gotten better at hitting from the right side, making him a threat from either side of the plate. He is a little slow defensively, but still has a strong glove. Grade: A
5. Starling Marte (LF) – Marte is a good candidate to have a breakout season in 2015. He’s fast, powerful, and great with the glove. He had a fantastic second half of the season and could easily continue that success into this season. His plate discipline has gotten better over last year, and hitting 5^th in the lineup should provide him with a lot of RBI opportunities. Grade: A
6. Pedro Alvarez (1B) – This will be Pedro’s first full season at 1^st. He had a very disappointing 2014 on both offense and defense. The Bucs are counting on Pedro having a better 2015, and that needs to happen. Pedro’s defense at third was awful last year. Hopefully a move to first, which limits his throws, will be a good change for him. He’s the biggest question in the lineup. How will his bat be? How will his defense be? Will 2013 or 2014 Pedro show up? Sure there’s Cutch, Walker, and Marte, but if the Pirates want to go out and win the division, Pedro needs to turn it on. Grade: B
7. Francisco Cervelli (C) – Cervelli is Russell Martin’s replacement. Those are huge shoes to fill, and he is no Martin. The Bucs couldn’t keep Russell in the offseason, so they traded for Cervelli. He’s a good pitch framer, and can provide a valuable bat. However, health is a huge issue. The most games Cervelli has played in a season in 92. The Pirates need him to stay healthy, and be consistent on offense, and especially defense. Grade: B-
8. Jordy Mercer (SS) – Jordy had a really solid year at short last year. He had a career high in homers and RBIs, although his average was not exceptionally high. He also has a flashy glove and rounds out a good infield. If Mercer falters, Jung-Ho Kang could take his place. This could possibly be the plan for the future, but right now, Jordy is the starting shortstop. If he puts up numbers like last year, he’ll be a good number 8 hitter. Grade: B

The Pirates have a great, competitive lineup with no glaring weaknesses. On paper, it looks like this lineup is the best the Pirates have had in a long time. Of course, some positions are not as strong as others, but the lineup’s core looks to be very productive. The Pirates seem to always have a slow April (as we’ve seen in the first series), but if they have hopes of taking the NL Central crown, this can’t happen. Players that the team relies on to step up have to step up in the beginning of the season, and continue throughout. Overall Grade: A

Bench

Corey Hart (1B/OF) – With the departures of both Ike Davis and Gaby Sanchez, the Pirates needed another first baseman to back Pedro. They signed Corey Hart who did not do very well in Seattle last year. However, the Alvarez-Hart platoon looks like it could be better than the Sanchez-Davis platoon. If Hart’s knees stay healthy, he’ll be a valuable bat off the bench. Grade: B

Andrew Lambo (1B/OF) – Andrew Lambo is running out of chances with the Pirates. Last year, the starting right fielder’s job was his to lose, and he lost it. He had a poor spring training, but got the last bench spot for the Pirates. He hasn’t shown that he can come through in the clutch, usually what a pinch hitter off the bench is brought in to do. He also hasn’t shown power. Time is running out for Lambo to prove himself. Grade: C

Sean Rodriguez (UTIL) – S-Rod was acquired in a trade this offseason, and the Pirates like him because of his versatility. He can play corner outfield, and most spots in the infield. His bat is not as strong, but he did have 12 homers for Tampa Bay last year. Grade: B-

Jung-Ho Kang (SS) – Surprisingly, the Bucs won the bidding for Korean shortstop Jung-Ho Kang, and then signed him to a four year deal. In the KBO, he showed great power and good fielding as well. He could eventually take the starting job at short, but he still needs to work on his offense and get a feel for playing in the majors. Grade: B+

Tony Sanchez (C) – Sanchez had a really good Spring Training, and until Chris Stewart comes back from the DL, he’ll be the backup catcher. Like Lambo, he has not performed as well as the Pirates hoped, and he still needs to work on his defense. He is also running out of time because Elias Diaz, the AAA catcher, had a good spring as well, but he won’t be ready for the bigs just yet. Tony is a good enough third catcher, and it could be worse. Grade: B

Compared to the bench for some of 2014, the bench could get an A+++. There isn’t much offense here, but the Pirates have a major league bench that has good backup fielders as well as good pinch hitters. Kang and Rodriguez, even Lambo can play multiple positions which is great for any bench. It may not be the best bench in the division, but it’s really strong and should be able to provide much needed clutch at bats. Overall Grade: A-

Rotation

1. Francisco Liriano – The Bucs brought Frankie back on a three year deal this offseason, and it was a deal that needed to happen. They could not lose both Liriano and Edinson Volquez, who left for Kansas City. Liriano had a stellar second half of the season after a shaky first half. He looked good on Opening Day as well. However, Liriano has never been able to stack up consistent seasons in a row. Will he stay strong? If his slider works as well as it did on Opening Day, it should be easy for Frankie to put up good numbers. Grade: B
2. Gerrit Cole – Gerrit Cole has to step up. It’s time. He has the stuff to be an ace and the team really needs him to show it this season. He has to win around 15 or more games, and be dominant if the Pirates want a dangerous rotation. What he’s shown the last two years is a good sign, especially in September of last year. Grade: B+
3. A.J. Burnett – A.J. came back to Pittsburgh for what will be his final year pitching, but what A.J. will show up? Will it be the A.J. that struck out more than 200 for the Bucs in 2013? Or will it be the A.J. that led the league in losses in 2014 in Philadelphia? He’s 38, so all the Pirates can do is hope for a season like Burnett had the first time he was here. Grade: B-
4. Jeff Locke – Jeff Locke struggled in spring training, but was still able to land a rotation spot. The one time all-star went 7-6 last year, but underperformed in the second half. Control is his big problem, and hopefully, with Burnett back, who Locke learned a lot from, he should be able to settle down. If not, there’s the chance he’s traded if Charlie Morton gets healthy. Grade: B-
5. Vance Worley – Worley was arguably the Bucs most consistent pitcher down the stretch in 2014, but he lost out on the last rotation spot to Locke. Charlie Morton’s injury has allowed Worley to make the rotation. I think very highly of Worley and believe he should be ahead of Locke in the rotation, but where he is throughout the season, the bullpen or the fourth/fifth starter, depends on the performances of Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton. Grade: B

The rotation is probably the probably the Pirates’ biggest question mark. Liriano has never strung together three consecutive consistent seasons, A.J. Burnett is 38, Vance Worley is better than Jeff Locke, but Locke took the final spot. And who knows what Charlie Morton will do? The rotation will probably change once Morton comes back, and a trade is very possible, but one thing is for sure: Gerrit Cole needs to step it up. Overall Grade: B

Bullpen

Mark Melancon – Melancon had over 30 saves last year and has proven that he is good enough to be the Pirates closer. He took over for the struggling Jason Grilli in April, and posted a 1.90 ERA for the season. He’s not a shutdown closer like an Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, but he is still one of the best pieces in the bullpen. Grade: A

Tony Watson – Watson was great last year, and might be the best pitcher in the bullpen. If Melancon struggles as closer, he could step up. He has the stuff and is almost unhittable against lefties. He struck out 81 last year in 77.1 innings and held lefties to a .179 average. Grade: A

Jared Hughes – Hughes is a valuable reliever that is overlooked. He is on and off, but when he is on, he’s really good. He’s a great 7^th inning guy, and he’s followed by Watson and Melancon. The late relievers for the Pirates are some of the best in the division. Grade: B+

Antonio Bastardo – Bastardo came over in a trade with Philadelphia, and he is another guy who can be on and off. However, he is usually pretty good against lefties and is a good 6^th or 7^th inning pitcher who doesn’t give up a lot of home runs. Grade: B

Rob Scahill – Scahill pitched for Colorado until the Pirates acquired him in a trade, so some of his numbers might be skewed, but it does not look like he is as good as John Holdzkom. However, he got the last bullpen spot and still needs to prove that he deserved it. Grade: C+

Radhames Liz: Liz was signed to a major league deal this offseason. He hasn’t been in the majors since he pitched 1.1 innings in 2009 with a 67 (yes, 67) ERA. That’s an extremely small sample size, but hopefully, Ray Searage can work his magic on Liz. If not, the Pirates have another Jenmar Gomez who can fill in if a starter gets knocked around. Grade: C

Arquimedes Caminero – Caminero was a surprise choice for a bullpen spot. The Bucs acquired him in the offseason as well, and has very little major league experience. He is a very hard thrower, but has some control issues. If he settles down, he could be another valuable piece in the Pirates bullpen, but if he does that still remains to be seen. Grade: C

The Pirates bullpen was a big threat last year, but through the first three games this year, it’s nowhere near as dominant. Of course, that doesn’t mean they won’t get better, but the Pirates should have their best relievers in their bullpen, and right now, they don’t. Rob Scahill got the nod over John Holdzkom for the final bullpen spot. He’s not terrible, but Holdzkom’s better. Eventually, Holdzkom will be up here, but it’s a curious move not having him start the season at the big league level. However, the bullpen is still really strong, especially the back end. The middle relievers are still unproven, but if Caminero’s fastball control gets better and Liz becomes a solid inning eater, the Bucs will have a great bullpen. Overall Grade: A

Overall

This could very well be the Pirates’ year to at least make a deep postseason run. The lineup is really good and while the pitching is not excellent, it can compete, especially the bullpen. If a starter leaves with a lead after 7 innings, the game could be over with Watson and Melancon coming in to finish it. If the Pirates can’t get it done this year, they’ll get another chance because most of the core right now is locked in until at least 2018, and there is a large amount of talent developing in the minors. Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Nick Kingham are pitching prospects that will definitely have in impact in the Majors within the next few years. Josh Bell, Austin Meadows, and Elias Diaz are also making their way through the minors. Being a catcher, Diaz has the easiest path to the bigs and could possibly be a September call-up. The Pirates will be a contending team for a long time. If the rotation can do as well as it has for the last two years, they’ll be fine, but the offense can’t go up and down throughout the season. It needs to stay constant throughout. This year, the Pirates are relying on a couple of key players to be dominant this year, and if that happens, they could take the team a long way. I’ve graded the Pirates pretty well, and they deserve it. They’re one of the best teams in the toughest division in the National League. Neil Huntington deserves a lot of credit for what he has done with this team; in 2010, they lost 105 games. Now, they have made the postseason two seasons in a row and have what it takes to make that three years in a row.

Prediction

The Pirates will finish 89-73 in 2015. It will take close to 90 wins to make the playoffs in the NL, and the Pirates should make the postseason. Everything is there for them to beat the Cardinals for the NL Central crown, but they have to beat the teams they should and have a better record on the road. Could this be the year it all comes together for the Pirates? It’s very possible. Pirate fans are excited, and they should be. It looks like it’ll be a great season.